South Africa's private sector growth in 2026 just posted its strongest reading since August 2022. S&P Global's April PMI came in at 51.6, up from 50.8 in March, with output at an 11-month high, new orders at their strongest in 18 months, and export sales at their fastest pace since July 2023. Four consecutive months of it now.

The export number is the one buried inside the headline. Demand from Zambia and the DRC drove that export acceleration to a near-three-year high, and for SA founders with operations in those markets, that's not an abstraction. It shows up in order volumes, in pipeline and in the pace of deals closing.

We've covered this pattern across cross-border payments infrastructure and littlefish expanding into 10-plus African markets. The South Africa PMI data puts a number on what those companies are experiencing on the ground. When SA's private sector export sales to the continent accelerate, the infrastructure layer like payments, logistics and SaaS, benefits directly.

The cost side is moving the other way, and that's the tension worth watching. Cost pressures have intensified sharply, driven by a weaker rand and higher international oil prices. Supplier delivery times have lengthened due to freight disruption from the Iran war. For a founder scaling into Zambia or the DRC right now, the revenue signal is positive and the input cost signal is not.

S&P Global senior economist David Owen flagged that some survey respondents pointed to safety stock building ahead of anticipated Middle East conflict headwinds, suggesting the pickup may be temporary. That's the question founders building cross-border infrastructure should be pressing on. Commodity-sector buyers in Zambia and the DRC stocking up ahead of supply disruption is a different signal from sustained demand for fintech, logistics or SaaS. The South Africa PMI doesn't separate those; it just shows the needle moving.

Business expectations improved for the first time in five months, supported by strong sales pipelines and export opportunities. But firms flagged rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty as live concerns. The next PMI print in June will tell us whether this is a trend or a blip. If export sales to Zambia and DRC hold without the safety stock rationale, that's a genuine signal for anyone building cross-border infrastructure in the region. If they don't, the Iran war may have borrowed demand from the second half of the year.

You might also like: Read our coverage of SA's cross-border payments infrastructure and the SA business reform thread. See how littlefish is expanding into 10-plus African markets.