H&M will open its 30th South African store at Paarl Mall on 31 October, an 1,831m² space in the Growthpoint-owned centre that serves Paarl, Wellington, Franschhoek, Worcester and the wider Cape Winelands. South African general manager Ricardo Valente da Conceicao called thirty stores a proud milestone and a sign of continued investment in the country.

The timing reads as pointed, since Truworths and TFG are both contracting, with TFG having closed 100 stores and identified roughly 300 more as underperforming or marginal.

The framing deserves a second look. H&M launched here in 2015, so thirty stores works out to under three openings a year over eleven years. More to the point, the group is shrinking. In the twelve months to 30 November 2025, H&M group sales fell 2.6% in Swedish kronor to SEK228.3bn, though local-currency sales rose 2%, and it finished the year operating about 4% fewer stores.

The region containing Africa, reported as Asia, Oceania and Africa, recorded the steepest decline of any region at 105 stores closed, and ranked among the group's weakest performers. H&M has said it plans around 160 closures in 2026 against roughly 80 openings. Operating margin improved to 8.1% from 7.4% on that smaller base, and the genuine expansion story is Latin America.

Daily Investor reports Truworths' half-year revenue slipped to R12.93bn with profit up just 0.3%, while its Africa retail sales fell 3.6%. Business Day notes H&M opened its first Brazilian stores and has seven more planned there this year. Retail Times carries GlobalData's read that the optimisation strategy is working, but the group still needs to rebuild its fashion credentials.

Thirty stores does not constitute a takeover of a national mall network. TFG alone is closing more stores this cycle than H&M has ever opened in South Africa. What is actually happening is that everyone is arriving at the same conclusion from opposite directions: fewer stores, better locations, a working online channel.

H&M is shutting twice as many as it opens globally and lifting margin while doing it. TFG is closing 100 and pointing at Bash. Truworths' only real growth line was online, up 23.3%. Paarl is not a land grab; it is H&M trading weak space for strong space in a market where it still has headroom.

The uncomfortable read is for landlords. Every anchor fashion tenant is now optimising the same variable, rand of revenue per square metre measured against fulfilment cost, and a freshly upgraded regional centre wins that contest while a tired secondary mall loses it twice.

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