Shein is targeting a valuation of $30bn to $40bn (R495bn to R660bn) in a Hong Kong listing it may launch as early as mid-August, according to three people cited by Reuters.

Pre-deal investor meetings started last week in New York, Boston and San Francisco, with some potential cornerstone investors pushing for a number closer to $30bn. The target sits well below the $98.2bn Shein was worth at its 2022 peak, and below the $64bn it carried through private rounds in 2023 and 2024.

China's securities regulator cleared the listing on 10 July after failed attempts in New York and London.

The prospectus filed on 26 July shows why the number moved. Revenue reached $41.8bn in 2025, up 8% from $38.7bn, which was itself up 20.7% from $32.1bn in 2023, so growth is decelerating fast. Net income fell 38.7% to $2.06bn.

The $99m first-quarter loss compares with a $395m profit a year earlier, and $328m of it was a non-cash fair-value charge on preferred shares. Strip that out and the sharper figures are an operating margin down to 2.9% from 3.9%, and US revenue down 14% to $2bn.

The cause is specific: Washington scrapped its $800 de minimis exemption in May 2025, leaving China-origin goods facing tariffs of 10% to 87.5%, and the EU closed its own €150 threshold on 1 July. More than 90% of net revenue still ships out of Chinese central warehouses.

TechCentral reports Shein is prioritising a price that holds after listing rather than maximising the valuation. CNBC notes the company warned that EU effects could match or exceed what it saw in the US, while Forbes reads the Hong Kong route as a governance shift consolidating control under founder Sky Xu.

SARS closed its version of the loophole before Washington or Brussels got there. Shein and Temu lost the R500 de minimis concession in July 2024, VAT was extended to small parcels that September, and the flat 20% rate was abolished in November, putting clothing back on the full 45% duty line.

Shein did not leave, and the Rest of the World segment that includes South Africa grew to $16.9bn, now 40.5% of total revenue. Higher landed cost did not destroy the demand; it lifted the shelf price and thinned the margin. Local retailers who lobbied for the change bought a level playing field, not a departure.

The real lesson sits one level up: this is what it looks like when a business whose unit economics depend on a regulatory subsidy has the subsidy withdrawn, and roughly 60% of the equity value goes with it.

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